Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Telangana Public Pulse: Heading towards hung Assembly

  • TRS set to be single largest party
  • BJP to increase vote share and seats
  • Congress fighting for survival
  • KCR’s fight against Centre not likely to fetch

Hyderabad: Telangana is expected to have Assembly elections in just another 18 months as scheduled and all major political parties started their campaign in advance vigorously. Speculations in and around political circles are that CM K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) may opt for early elections. TRS Supremo changed his style in campaign aiming guns at the Centre, this time using sentiment of State Vs Centre. PrimePost.in brings you an exclusive ground report in Telangana state.

Sentiment again to TRS’ rescue

KCR was successful in bringing party twice into power using the same sentiment, “T’ in 2014 and 2018 elections. In fact, there was anti incumbency witnessed, as is the case now, in 2018 elections too, but it was TDP big wig Chandrababu Naidu who aligned with Congress gave chance for TRS party to retain power consecutively as KCR went into campaign once again with slogan “Delhi and Andhra leaders rule or State leader rule”. But afterwards there were many scenes, stories ran within the party, with Eatala Rajender, one of the main kingpins in the party, resigned and came out of TRS. Ruling party was strongly pushed back  by the results of  polls in Dubbaka, Huzurabad and lost seats in GHMC elections. There were scripts and stories ran in electronic media and print media that IT Minister K. Taraka Rama Rao will be made as successor of K. Chandrasekhar Rao who would later will move to Delhi politics. For various reasons, the move was kept aside by KCR. But inner circles say that party leaders did not support or accept KTR as the Icon leader of Telangana, KTR, (as said by TRS cadre) unanimously. Now the story is different. K. Chandrasekhar Rao changed his mind and style and started campaign against centre, leaving unsolved problems, issues of the state. He started touring states like Punjab, West Bengal, Karnataka and UT Delhi and met Chief Minister’s of the states to gain their support to form a Federal Front against NDA. This move also witnessed anger and criticism in public, particularly in farmers and in youth. At this juncture we don’t know how far he is successful in that move but gave a press statement that Country will see a major change in coming three months. We have to look forward to that development with fingers crossed.

Bandi dilates on Hindutva and Modi’s performance

For the first time, we are seeing key focus by party High Command focussing on Southern State very seriously. May be, by polls result would have favoured party for that move. BJP strongly believes that Karnataka is safe zone and another state to concentrate is Telangana in South. Party is looking for a gateway to enter in South for many years since 1999.TBJP president Bandi Sanjay started aggressive campaign by playing the Hindutva card, highlighting Modi’s schemes, and touring major constituencies in the name of paadayatra. Public meeting held at Tukkaguda on closing day of the second phase of the  paadayatra with Amit Shah as Chief Guest was successful which filled cadre a hope or chance of coming into power in the State. BJP is holding National Executive meet in Hyderabad for two days on July 2nd, 3rd in presence of PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. The party by selecting Hyderabad shows how serious it is focussing on Telangana State.

Leadership issue in Congress almost settled

New josh is seen in the party after Revanth Reddy was announced as new TPCC President. Internal fights, complaints to High Command on Revanth also seen at the same time. For the time being, the leadership problem appears to have been resolved, but we can’t say when this would arise again in coming days. Revanth was successful in bringing Rahul Gandhi to Warangal and making farmers declaration by him in presence of a huge crowd. He was also successful in holding Rachha banda and doing paadayatra. His main plan appears to be in public through different means until elections. He was not seen at Chintan shibir held two days ago and he was in the US, this lead to criticism against him, but his followers say that the US tour was planned long ago.

TRS, single largest party

Primepost brings the ground report on the state and position of the parties who in a busy campaign mode.

TRS, ruling party, is said to emerge as a single largest party getting 45 to 50 seats. The major asset for the party is minority votes, Muslim vote bank, which is strongly supporting TRS in almost all constituencies, leaving Old City. As long as BJP campaigns on Hindutva, Muslim vote bank will tilt more towards TRS as per ground analysis. BJP, which is in third place in order of past popularity, will increase its tally to double figures in between 20 to 25 while the Congress will end up between 10 to 15 seats and in almost remaining seats we will see a triangular fight which can’t be predicted as of now.’ The major setback for congress party is, votes are tilting towards TRS in majority constituencies to counter BJP. In other words, anti-incumbency votes are not tilting towards congress and said to be safe in TRS pockets to counter saffron (Polarisation of votes not seen).

BJP will increase its number in Greater Hyderabad, Karimnagar, Adilabad and congress in Warangal, Nalgonda districts. Surprisingly, Khammam which is a strong belt of congress is set to give TRS majority once again. TRS is safe in Mahaboobnagar, Nizamabad, Ranga Reddy.

Key issues to be discussed  in coming days

Congress and BJP are eyeing on exoduses from ruling party. For example leaders like Tummala Nageswara Rao, Ponguleti Sudhakar Reddy might be lured by the saffron party in coming days. At the same time, TRS chief is understood to be toying with the idea of replacing a few sitting MLAs as there is severe anti incumbency seen on them, according a report given by Prashant Kishor’s team. BJP and Congress are expecting seniors to join their parties. But can they bring a swing for Saffron or congress during election time?

More MPs for BJP

MIM, which is set, be a registered number of 7 MLAs will support TRS party post elections and as of now TRS is set to be heading for a third time win but it is not going to be so easy as in previous elections. At the same time, ruling party will lose MP seats as voters are expected to tilt towards BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. BJP is set to increase its MPs’ number, but restricted to 20 to 25 seats when it comes to assembly seats.

Also read: Andhra Pradesh Pulse: TDP emerging, YCP graph in dilemma

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