Saturday, August 13, 2022

Andhra Pradesh Pulse: TDP emerging, YCP graph in dilemma

  • YCP completes 3 years of rule after thumping win in 2019
  • Public pulse different now compared to 2019
  • Opposition TDP slowly emerging in many districts
  • Is it self-goal by YCP or Naidu’s success?
  • ‘Primepost’ ground report from Andhra Pradesh

  Amaravati:  YSRCP Government completed three years of rule after getting into power with a tsunami in 2019 elections dethroning TDP. Y.S. Jagan came to power, thanks to his walkathon and the pursuading slogan “One Chance” which worked and made him to sit on top chair. But the scenario looks to be different at ground level as of now. Primepost tried to catch the pulse of voters in Andhra Pradesh in different aspects taking into consideration various factors like caste, capital issue, welfare schemes by YCP Government, Government sectors, Polavaram project, investments in AP by companies, employment, liquor ban or prohibition, and job calendar as promised by Jagan during his walkathon.

Not positive for YSRCP

The scenario doesn’t look quite positive for YCP government and it is clearly a warning bell by voters to the ruling party. All section of people are clearly indicating an anti-incumbency factor against the ruling party when we tried at ground level. The main factor which is worrying Jagan’s government is lack of consistency in all areas starting from capital to employment. The youth who supported YCP in 2019 elections became mute spectators now and they are slowly tilting towards main opposition parties, TDP and Jana Sena. Sections of farmers are happy with the schemes implemented by Jagan Government but we have to see if it will continue due to insufficient funds in the treasury to run the schemes.

Clear self-goal by YCP

Tilting graph against YCP is not due to the fight by opposition parties but a self-goal by ruling party, felt many analysts and YCP cadre. Jagan, who supported Amravati as capital suddenly, took U-turn for three capitals hoping that the decision will benefit him. This decision appears  to be a non-starter as it did not move an inch forward in three years. There was clear anger seen by voters on sitting MLAs in many constituencies, for neglecting the constituency after winning. May be this is the reason CM Jagan directed MLAs to tour constituencies and be in touch with voters.

The standstill on capital issue and incompletion of Polavaram project and other irrigation projects, failing to bring new investments which can create employment are major failures. The Navaratna schemes ran successfully for three years but whether it will continue for another two years is a question mark.

TDP emerging

Mahanadu which was conducted after a gap of two years witnessed a mammoth crowd which boosted confidence in TDP leaders. It is true that cadre came voluntarily to the meet spending  money from their own pockets. This is what TDP lost just before 2019 elections. We observed a voluntary walk by all section of people towards Mahandu including women and youth which certainly lifted spirits of Naidu and Lokesh. This is not due to the fight put up by TDP against government but the continuous mistakes and wrong decisions on the part of the ruling party, said a voter who favoured YCP in 2019 elections. This a clear indication that YCP’s graph is coming down.

Jana Sena creeping up silently

To be noted is another party Jana Sena in 2024 elections. Party looks to be more aggressive than in 2019 elections, thanks to Nadendla Manohar who is touring districts continuously and monitoring the situation. Pawan Kalayn’s promise to arrange compensation for farmers went into public in a positive way. Party will cross double digit mark in next elections and increase its vote share substabtially and surprisingly.

NTR district, Guntur, Praksam, East Godavari, West Godavari, Vizag, Sriakakulam, Kurnool, Ananathapur districts are clearly tilting towards TDP and Jana Sena.

Will Jana Sena, TDP join hands?

Will Jana Sena dump BJP and join hands with TDP? This is a million dollar question at present. But speculations in social media confirms that Pawan is interested to join hands with TDP whether BJP accepts it or not. If it is true, this combo will be a sure threat for YCP Government in 2024 elections.

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