Monday, April 22, 2024

GHMC Poll Survey: TRS has edge, BJP to improve its numbers

  • Last hour surge in polling a plus point for TRS
  • Increase in votes in middle class areas creates hope for saffron party
  • It is a clear vote for change, say Prime post analysts

Hyderabad: GHMC Election campaign was electrifying. Fiery battles were fought  between TRS and BJP leaders and workers  for 10 days. The hungama made in a short span of time by parties in the race, TRS and BJP, AIMIM, shocked everyone. Reasons are many such as war of words which hit rock bottom of political culture, ’surgical strike,’ terrorists, midterm elections by TBJP President Bandi Sanjay, galli leaders, calling PM as Tea seller  by Telangana CM and other TRS leaders, calling for demolition of  PV, NTR Samdhi’s, challenging PM to campaign in old city by AIMIM leaders are a few that can  be quoted. Every political party has its own agenda when it goes into campaign keeping in view of its plans and strategies. Even mildly tense situation a day before poll at Khairtabad was sought to be capitalised by two rival – BJP and TRS.

National leaders, central ministers campaigned for BJP and CM K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) has appealed to the people of Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) to vote for TRS for taking the city forward with redoubled vigour and energy. AIMIM came up with a campaign to vote for them to be united during crisis period, keeping Muslim community in mind. How far have all these parties succeeded on poll day in motivating the voters to go to the booth and vote? Let us see.

Prime post Analysis

Polling percentage recorded at 5 pm on the day of polling, December 1, was low, but when compared the percentage, it is clearly varied from old city to rest of the city. It was low in old city, but drastically increased in rest, particularly in out skirts of the city. The fireworks at Nampally BJP’s office post-election and pin drop silence at Pragathi Bhavan, KCR’s residence, reflects the poll pattern. To review it, KCR along with son-minister will be meeting on Wednesday evening. Until then, the TRS leaders were asked by their party high command not to open their mouths, according to the TRS sources. The voting pattern went on well in middle class and posh areas and less in slums which is a worrying factor for a party which earlier declared its intention to cross 100 seats mark.

Peace, tranquillity in Hyderabad became central issue

Call given by Telangana CM to help his party win for safety and the law and order in Hyderabad, and KTR’s personal call to voters worked for TRS. There is clear indication of change in vote at Chikkadapally, Musheerabad, Malkajgiri, Ameerpet, Bharathinagar, Serlingampally, Banjara Hills, Vengalrao Nagar, Cherlapally, Bagh Amberpet, Golnaka, Himayatnagar, Kukatpally, Madhapur, Shalibanda. L.B. Nagar, Chaitanyapuri.

Ruling party was enjoying good clout in places like Khairtabad, Hafeezpet, yellammabanda, Hyderanagar, Mythrinagar, Kondapur, Gaddi Annaram, Amberpet, Nallakunta, Madhuranagar, Borabanda, Qutubullapur. Congress party might open its account in Uppal and Jubilee hills, but the future of the party appears to be bleak in Telangana. The last hour on poll day saved one of the major parties, which would relax on counting day for overcoming a big hurdle.

Also read: GHMC Poll Survey and Analysis

AIMIM remains unchallenged in its bastion

AIMIM was as cool as Hi-tech city on poll day and still holds solid grip on old city, thus proving to be monarch at his bastion. The figure may vary from the number of seats it won in 2016 elections with reduced in number of seats. But MIM will be happy to see their community favouring TRS all over the city. MIM is almost going to capture the old city adda once again but losing few in new city which won by them last time. Few wards are neck to neck and prediction is too difficult even for pollsters and can be known only on counting day.

Our analysis is clear that there will be a change in GHMC results when compared to 2016 elections. The result may keep saffron a little happy as they feel if one seat is more than previous one, it is a morale booster for cadre. They will certainly enter into double figure for the first time in GHMC elections, but can clearly say, they lost a big opportunity on poll day with somewhat inadequate booth management.

Impact on TRS

Certainly, there is an impact that the TRS might get less number of seats when compared to last time when it got 99 seats. Future looks to be tough for the ruling party which is loaded with anti- incumbency sentiment. LRS has also played crucial role on poll day which certainly impacted voters’ mind.

Exodus to increase

With Ramulamma, Aka, Vijayshanthi, joining saffron party on the 7th, there are few names that are expected to jump into BJP once results were announced. Former MP Sarve Satyanarayana, TPCC treasurer Guduru Narayana Reddy are almost certain to join in coming days and congress is going to face a big jolt with these exoduses actually take place. BJP is successful in projecting itself as the main rival of the ruling party in the State, which was proved in Dubbaka by-poll and will be more focused after results of GHMC. There are certain names of district leaders of the ruling party who are looking at saffron party.

Money and liquor played a crucial role on poll day along with rigging in the last hour. There were statements by leaders and citizens that SEC should have handled with abundant caution to control these problems during elections.

(Stay tuned for our exit poll at 7 pm on November 3)


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