Thursday, June 13, 2024

GHMC survey: Neck and neck between TRS, BJP

  • Survey conducted before the release of TRS manifesto
  • Prior to BJP launching aggressive campaign by involving national leaders

Hyderabad: GHMC Polls are just a week to go and all major parties are in a tense mood on which side voter is, the Prime Post is publishing the conclusions of an exclusive opinion poll to give an idea how the trend in the GHMC polls  is and the reasons behind it.

To start with, there are 150 wards in GHMC and parties in the fray are TRS, BJP, AIMIM, TDP, Communist parties and  the Congress. There are 1122 candidates in the fray and only party contesting in all the divisions is TRS. Main rival to the ruling party is BJP which  contesting in 149 divisions while the Congress 146 ,TDP 106, AIMIM 51, CPI 17, CPM 12 and other recognised parties 76 and most importantly, there are 416 independents  in the race who will decide the outcome  in a few constituencies.

Also Read: ROs, AROs of the GHMC wards

In 2016 GHMC elections, the alliance of TDP-BJP was routed, and TRS ending with 99 seats. This time, BJP is fighting alone and TRS is aiming to hit a century. But the ground report shows entirely different picture  with TRS losing seats and BJP picking them up, but not up to the mark of grabbing Mayor Seat.

Dilemma in voters

Peculiar replies were given by voters during survey in city including AIMIM bastion. Voter is still confused whether to go for national face of Modi and development or to support Telangana Government for the development and resolution to the  local issues. The undecided voters are nearly 5% and the result may change according the choice they are going to make on Dec 1.

Also Read: GHMC polls : BJP to Increase seats

Andhra Parties’ Impact

TDP (Though they claim to be a national party, it is essentially a party confined to Andhra Pradesh) and YCP are also playing crucial role in the result of GHMC elections in more than 24 wards. YCP which did not utter a word on GHMC elections, shows it is positive towards TRS even though the party’s supporters are tight lipped.TDP, which contested in 2016 in alliance with the BJP lost its base in Telangana, has still few vote banks in outskirts of city. The TDP cadre are in a mood to go for TRS rather than supporting BJP in many areas and the reason being the strong feeling that Modi had betrayed  Andhra and not prepared  to support CBN. The results will be with minimal margins across major divisions in new city and the cross voting of these parties will hamper the outcome for both BJP and TRS.

Also Read: Ward wise Reservations for GHMC election

Problems and Reasons to vote for a particular party

It is correct to say after opinion poll,  that the ruling party, TRS, is facing anti-incumbency sentiment  at the ground level for the first time after 2018 assembly polls. This appeared  more aggressive after the recent unprecedented downpour in  Hyderabad. The revolt by voters in many areas against TRS leaders who are campaigning was because of the difficulties faced by the people during the floods. The people  want to give a chance for BJP, as they did in Andhra for YCP, to show their anger.

Water, drainage system, rehabilitation of the  flood victims, bad roads are the crucial factors that were referred to by the people when pollsters approached them. Few raised traffic problems and problematic  flyover works. All these are going to impact ruling party on Dec 1st.

Also Read: First List of TRS Candidates for GHMC Elections

Faith in KTR

Minister KTR has a good image among Hyderabad voters, and were influenced by his vigorous campaign during 2016 elections. It is because of his hard work and promises made in the manifesto that the  people voted for TRS to give it a thumbing majority. But this time the scenario is going to be different. Even the young minister who has been doing roadshows  attracting good crowds, the voting  would be for a change as per the survey. The young voters are appearing to favour the BJP rather than the TRS, which shows that there is decline in the  faith the people reposed in the minister who strained himself to improve the  brand image of Hyderabad in the last five years.

Failure to implement the double bedroom house  promise which got the ruling party votes 2016 will show its impact on the outcome of this election.

Also Read: GHMC Polls: BJP Candidates First List

Survey Predictions

TRS is slated to lose  30 to 35% of seats compared to 2016 results. The reasons vary from ward to ward which includes anti-incumbency, selection of candidates, corruption, lack of development in their wards from 2016. For the first time, we are going to see a jolt for MIM which has been a monarch  in the  old city. Their seats will be reduced considerably.

Who is having upper hand?

Certainly it is saffron party which would gain a lot in vote share and seats when compared to last elections. Voters have already decided  to go for an alternative, and the only alternative  they see is the BJP. The percentage of vote share is more than 4 times and we are going to see surprise swing in seats. There is not that much impact of its ally Jana Sena in these elections. Second reason people are opting is ‘TINA’ factor, with congress slipping its vote bank from pockets, making way for the BJP to increase seats. There may be a surprise in MIM bastion with BJP opening account after many years. The campaign of Central leaders such as Amit Shah, J.P.Nadda, UP CM Yogi Adityanath may boost cadre in coming days.

Also Read: GHMC Polls: Can BJP hit Hattrick?

Total seats trend will be like this with survey completed on Nov 22nd and 23 rd morning

Surprising promise in TRS manifesto

We have to see about the impact of road shows by KTR and TRS Manifesto which was announced Monday evening, particularly on waiver off water bill, free current to saloons by Telangana Chief Minister K.Chandrasekhar Rao. But political analysts expressed surprise about the promises and policy decisions given by him which are related to State Government and not in perview of GHMC. This may amount to violation of code as per experts.

Also Read: GHMC Polls: BJP releases second list

BJP is expected to well in Medchal and Sanga Reddy districts while  TRS would be leading  in Ranga Reddy district with tough fight ensuing  in a few divisions against the BJP, Hyderabad division favouring MIM. Out of 24 assembly constituencies pertaining to GHMC, there is clear majority for BJP in 9, TRS 7, MIM 6 and two neck-to-neck.

Also Read: GHMC Polls: BJP releases third and fourth list

Also Read: GHMC Polls: Politics of polarization will not help

Also Read: Free drinking water promised in TRS manifesto


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