- Opposition parties fail to gain voter’s confidence
- BJP continues to be most preferred choice for people in UP
- Survey carried out during September 4th to October 4th
- State results will have significant influence on country’s political scenario in 2024 elections
Uttar Pradesh: Just few months before the assembly elections in UP which will certainly influence political atmosphere at the centre, at this juncture, ABP news along with C Voter conducted an opinion survey to know the mood of the voters in the largest poll-bound State, UP.
According to the survey, Yogi Adityanath is comfortably placed and he is most likely to retain power in the electoral contest to be held in 2022. It is clear from the survey that none of the opposition parties like Samajwadi party, BSP, or Congress gained the voters’ confidence to overthrow BJP led Government in upcoming assembly elections.
BJP’s Vote Share intact irrespective of incumbency
Saffron party is expected to grab vote share of 41.3% in the next elections. It is noted that BJP is maintaining vote share of 41% continuously since 2017 assembly elections. In the last assembly elections, BJP secured 41.4% vote share and not much dip in vote share occurred when compared to previous elections as per survey.
Samajwadi Party gains Vote Share
Party which is led by former CM Akhilesh Yadav is to gain vote share when compared to previous elections. It is expected to gain 8.8% from 23.6% in 2017 to 32.4% in 2022. This is all due to slump in BSP vote share whose leaders have been migrating towards SP rather than BJP. BSP secured 22.2% in 2017 and appears to be declining to 14.7% in 2022.
Congress to fail miserably
Congress, country’s grand old party (GOP) is expected to get 5.6% votes share in 2022 as per ABP survey. Party secured 6.3% in 2017 elections and the fall in vote share is a jolt to the party which was out of power since 1989. Party started campaign with Priyanka Gandhi touring constituencies, but voters are not tilting towards party as per survey.
Party seats projections
When translated into seats, BJP and its alliance is likely to grab somewhere between 241 to 249 seats in 2022 assembly elections. There is clear dip in seats from figure of 325 seats they had secured earlier, but alliance is expected to cross the majority figure comfortably.
Samajwadai Party which will be the main contender for BJP in 2022 elections as per survey will settle between 130 to 138 seats, improving its tally drastically. BSP will end up between 15 to 19 seats and congress will be pushed to single digit once again ending with 3 to 7 seats.
With few months to go, Can SP pick up its vote share and gin confidence of voters or will Yogi improve his mark of governance and try for magic figure the party got in 2017 once again?