- Neck to neck between BJP and TMC
- Minority votes crucial, which will decide 46 constituencies
- BJP certainly surging as polling day getting closer
- Prashant Kishor plays mind game as last resort
Kolkata: Just few days left for Bengal to go for the first phase of polling, pollsters’ calculations are changing day by day with TMC and BJP are heading for neck to neck race. It is true that BJP surged in Bengal with jet speed, but from January, 2021; there is light difference with TMC graph slowly increasing and the party getting into fight. Out of five States scheduled for Poll, all eyes are on Bengal, which almost looks to be a fight between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata. Central Home Minister Amit Shah is sweating it out to halt Mamata’s hattrick win.
Mamata, who was admited to SSKM hospital was discharged on Sunday and she will participate in a road show on wheel chair. Is it to gain sympathy vote or a strategy by poll strategist Prashant Kishor will be known in few days as the video footage relating to the attack was submitted by BJP to EC to find out real facts. TMC which has to release it’s Manifesto on Sunday differed the date by a few days.
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Out of 294 Assembly seats, TMC won a thumbing majority with 211 seats in 2016 contest, but things surely have changed in 2021 elections. Many factors like increase in violence, exoduses from TMC to BJP, polarisation of votes of minorities between AIMIM and ISF, Hinduthava card, will impact ruling TMC this time.
For example, if we take Malda and Murshidabad districts, Muslim population increased nearly 67% in Murshidabad when compared to last and 51% in former district. Nearly 30% voters are Muslim vote bank which will decide the fate of 46 constituencies out of 294 and these will certainly play a crucial role in deciding who will be on top chair in 2021.These two districts are very much vital and TMC is confident that Muslims will favour TMC rather than AIMIM and ISF. The exoduses of TMC MLAs and MPs may show impact on results but it may a marginal as per ground realty. Up to December 2020, there is a clear indication that BJP will form the government in Bengal with a huge majority, but the gap is getting closer as of March 2021. With opinion polls favouring TMC’s win, which might not taken granted at this juncture as the fight is still on.
Poll strategist Prashant Kishor (PK) knows very well that Bengal is a tough one to predict and trying his hard to keep Mamata on top chair. He is using all his experience to retain Didi as CM. Performing pooja in temples and Mamata claiming that she is a Brahmin looks to be mind game played by Prashant in the last minute.
The code word JIASRIRAM is witnessed in major districts of Bengal indicating the shifting of votes to saffron from TMC. The advantage BJP has this time is split of vote bank between the TMC on one hand and the Communists and the Congress on the other. The Communists aand the Congress together had nearly 35% of vote share in 2021 elections (23% Left, 12% Congress). And certainly it will be a big loss for the Left and the Congress.
After observing this, farmers’ leader Tikait is going to campaign in favour of Mamata with slogan, ‘Don’t Vote for BJP’. This is also last ditch attempt by TMC as per political observers. It is clear that voters came to a decision whom to vote for and now the race is on. Don’t get surprised if Bengal witnesses a hung Assembly this time. Till May 2, when votes will be counted, it is surely a nailbiting wait.