Hung Assembly in Assam?

• BJP to get 43 – 48
• Congress 38 – 43

The elections to the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly is having a neck-to-neck contest that would throw up a Hung House with the BJP emerging as the single largest party. BJP is forming the Government, INC might fail to manage the 1-4 shortage of members to form the Government in ASSAM.

As Per the Post Poll Survey conducted by Peoples Pulse, Hyderabad based political research organisation, BJP would get 43-48 seats and the Congress seems to attempt to be closing in with 38-43 seats. The AIUDF would get about 16 -19 seats and the BPF would get around 7 seats. AGP – 7-9, AGM-0-1, CPM- 1-2 , AJP 0-3, RD- 0-1, UPPL – 4-5 seats respectively. In this Election Maximum gainer is AIUDF and Maximum loser is AGP. BJP is forming the government, INC might fail to manage the 1-4 shortage of members.

The survey would have a Margin of error of Plus or Minus 5 percent in the Seat share.

As per the Post poll survey conducted by Peoples Pulse vote share for BJP allies, Congress allies, and Third Front allies is Mitrajot – 35%-37%, Mahajot – 39%-41%, Third Front – 6%-8%. The survey would have a Margin of error of Plus or Minus 2 percent in the Vote share.

As per the Post poll survey conducted by Peoples Pulse in 1^st Phase BJP allies may get 30–35 seats, INC allies 13 – 19 seats, and Other 0-4 seats, 2^nd Phase BJP allies 17-22, INC allies – 21-26, Others 0-1, and in 3^rd Phase BJP allies – 16-21, INC allies – 26-31, Others 0-1 seats. As per the total three phases BJP allies may get 63-68, INC allies 61-66, and others 0-6.  The survey would have a Margin of error of Plus or Minus 5 percent in the Vote share.

The main groupings for Assam Assembly Elections- 2021 are Mitrajot and Mahajot. The Third Front would be of little consequence other than the fact that their winners would be vulnerable to horse trading in the post-poll scenario. Already political circles are aware that both groupings are indulging in shepherding their possible winners to their respective camps.

In upper Assam, BJP is in an advantageous position, but their tally would remain at 30-35. Hence, Congress has performed better than the previous election with 14-19 seats.

In Barak valley, out of 15, Mohajot is winning 10-12 seats, this is the turning point for Mahajot. Mitrajot is comfortable in the Hill area, probably clean sweep this time. In middle Assam, polled in first and second phase, (Nagaon, Marigaon, Hojai), out of 14, Mitrajot is winning only in 5 and rest will be with Mahajot. The seven constituencies of Middle Assam polled in the second phase, 4 is with Mahajot, 3 is for Mitrajot. 

If we come to Ghy all the seats will be in favour of BJP.

In BTAD, BPF is gaining 7 out of 12 this time. In lower assam including Darrang, out of 35 (excluding BTAD and Guwahati Metro), 22 seats are in favour of Mahajot. 

MAIN FINDINGS

SEAT SHARE

Note: Margin of error of Plus or Minus 5 percent.

SEAT SHARE

Note: Margin of error of Plus or Minus 5 percent.

VOTE SHARE

Note: Margin of error of Plus or Minus 2 percent.

PHASE WISE RESULTS