- Win gave moral confidence to cadre
- Claims only alternative for TRS
- Will impact upcoming GHMC elections
- Strong message to ruling party by voters
Hyderabad: BJP’s win in Dubbaka is throwing many signals for ruling party and in state politics. It’s not easy win for a party which was in 3rd position in previous elections and to tackle against trouble shooter Harish Rao’s poll strategy but at the end it all came up in a positive way with a thriller finish on counting day for BJP. Don’t forget that this is a first victory for any party in by polls against TRS from 2014 and after TRS given power for second term in 2018.
TRS Mistakes: It is not one mistake for their defeat, if we look at post analysis. TRS banked more on two factors rather than understanding ground realty. One mainly depended on Sympathy factor after filing S. Sujatha as its candidate and second keeping total pressure on T. Harish Rao without any support from CM or his son during campaign.
When our team visited Dubbaka exactly two weeks before elections, the atmosphere looks to be totally favoured TRS after we interacted with voters. The reason behind was only their positive attitude towards Harish rao rather than any in TRS team.
Also Read: Why I thought TRS would not lose Dubbaka?
What made Voters Swung towards BJP?
The arrogant statements by TRS leaders during election campaign was major reason for the defeat along with the two factors described above. Statement from Hyderabad by TRS leaders stating that Dubbaka election is not at all meant for them as they will win easily, comments on TBJP President Bandi Sanjay, his arrest issue all turned out towards BJP rather than benefitting ruling party pushing Harish Rao’s efforts in vain. Siddipet PS episode is a turning point for BJP and that is the reason Raghunanada Rao after win in the election came up with a statement that his win is attributed to Siddipet Police commissioner. They know well how that incident favoured them.
Even before by elections, there was anti incumbency factor clearly witnessed in Dubbaka for reasons like unemployment, Mallanasagar farmer’s issue, teachers issue etc. But with vigorous campaign by Harish Rao made it to swing a bit towards TRS which is all put an halt by local leaders at the end.
Sympathy for whom?
TRS strongly felt that demise factor of S. Ramalinga Reddy factor will fetch them a lot and expected a lead of more than one lakh votes without estimating the ground realty. The sympathy factor for one reason helped BJP’s candidate rather than TRS. Voters showed more on Raghunandan as he was defeated twice and contesting for 3rd time, and came up with a mindset to give him a chance once.
BJP’s strategist move: Once the date for by poll was announced, there is a lot of ground work done by BJP, RSS karyakartas at ground level. There was no hungama with big rallies or disputes and they preferred more door to door campaign rather than public meetings. They were successful in explaining voters about benefits of central schemes rather than state Govt schemes. They met almost every voter in the constituency with the help of cadre moved to Dubbaka in support to Raghunandan and were successful in bringing voter to booth for voting on polling day.82% polling shows how the anti incumbency was and how BJP was successful in turning it towards their candidate.
Unity among BJP leaders was seen for the first time in this election. Leaders like Kishan Reddy, Union Minister, MP’s Bandi Sanjay, Soya babu Rao, former MP Jitender Reddy, leaders like D.K.Aruna, Babumohan , Laxman all were seen on the same stage and campaigned vigorously for their candidate’s win which atmosphere was not witnessed in the TRS.
Also Read: Dubbaka By Poll: BJP throws surprise
Alarm signals overthrown: When BJP won 4 lok Sabha seats in 2019 after their single seat win in assembly, it is almost a warning bell to solo champion TRS which was neglected by them. BJP which did not fared in by elections in Huzurnagar, they started ground work in all regions of the state. That is the main reason for their success in a constituency like Dubbaka, which is surrounded by CM, his nephew, and his son constituencies.
Impact on GHMC elections: The result of Dubbaka will impact to an extent in upcoming GHMC elections. We can see a lot of exodus from ruling party and congress into BJP in coming days. Though there is no danger for stable Govt of TRS, it is a red light for them who are in an idea that there is no strong opposition in state. At the end if there is total anti incumbency on the Govt, what could Harish Rao alone can do for win? It is clearly voter’s strong message to state govt rather than Dubbaka constituency.