Saturday, June 22, 2024

GHMC EXIT POLL: TRS safe, BJP aggressive

  • BJP To gain seats and improve vote share
  • Last hour worked for TRS rather than BJP
  • Low percentage of poll to help MIM in old city

Hyderabad: Dec 1st witnessed GHMC elections with voting percentage of 46.7%, which is a little higher than previous one in 2016. There were minor clashes on the polling day with money inducements and liquor flow going on a   large scale. The fraud was practised by all parties. In a few areas, the rate was almost Rs. 15000 per vote which shocked the pollsters.

The percentage of poll was low in old city and increased in rest of the city, particularly in city outskirts on all sides. Leaders of major parties, TRS and BJP, are still in a dilemma, as is the case with the pollsters, about the last hour run by voter. The ruling TRS was hopeful until 4 pm after seeing the low percentage of voting that they were on safe side. Even before the polling ended, BJP leaders started criticizing SEC and TRS that they were the main reason for low percentage of voting. We have even witnessed debates in electronic media and opinion pieces in print media that the govt. should come up with measures to increase the percentage. But with four continuous holidays, and Covid pandemic everywhere, the percentage should satisfy everyone at the end of the day.

TRS: The ruling party appeared uncomfortable from day one after Dubbaka by poll result was announced. They were in a hurry to conduct GHMC polls much before the schedule. After series of meetings at Pragathi Bhavan with TRS leaders and AIMIM President Asadudding Owaisi, Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) decided to go for an early poll and there was no indication to the media. SEC kept silent about the announcement of the date. Sudden floods to the city added to anti-incumbency sentiment. It was supposed that the flood havoc would be a major setback for pink party. LRS burden on middle class and the poor, challans on auto rickshaws, delay in rehabilitation schemes all pushed TRS into danger zone on poll day. Even the surge in the BJP with national leaders participating in the campaign, road shows, and the increased momentum made TRS to rethink its strategy. Even on poll day, when we conducted exit poll, voters who gave positive ink on BJP inside booth said we are strong supporters of TRS. But it is for the first time that they were voting for saffron as they did not like sitting corporators and they were keen on  teaching  a lesson to the ruling party. But the call given by Telangana CM to help his party win for the sake of peace and the law and order in Hyderabad, and KTR’s personal call to voters once again to keep Ganga-Jamuni culture intact made the difference at the end.

BJP: The saffron party was mainly dependent on three factors in these GHMC elections. Hinduthva card, anti-incumbency sentiment against the TRS, strong momentum created by the party’s President Bandi Sanjay with his arrogant remarks or rallies from morning to evening. He was the first BJP leader or President to visit Bhagya Lakshmi temple near Charminar in the old city in the past few years, with a target to prove BJP is the only party that can face dominant Muslim leaders of old city. They thought it is  a master strategy for elections in Hyderabad with considerable Muslim population. But the same strategy altered their fortunes on poll day. Incident which happened a day before the polling day in Khairatabad went against the BJP and CM’s appeal to vote for TRS to maintain law and order situation and protect Hyderabad from communal clashes got registered in the voter’s mind.

MIM: The Majlis arty played safe in old city, their own bastion, but certainly will be losing some seats when compared to last elections.

The percentage of BJP will be going up to 32% which is a minor increase when compared to 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Our post poll survey predicts that TRS will elect Mayor on its own strength, MIM will suffer a bit, BJP would  increase its seats and vote share.

Also read: GHMC Poll Survey: TRS has edge, BJP to improve its numbers

Final Projection of seats:

  • TRS – 69
  • BJP – 30
  • MIM – 37
  • Cong – 6

Tight contests:

  • Cong Vs TRS 1
  • TRS Vs BJP 4
  • BJP Vs MIM 1
  • MIM Vs TRS 2

Note: The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percent. The bottom-line is that the BJP has arrived in Telangana and is expected to acquire 30 plus seats in an election in which the traditional vote bank did not vote. Come 2023 or 2022 if the PM would have his way in one nation – one elections theory, the BJP is going to give a very tough fight to the TRS.

Sl. NoNo & Name of the CircleNo & Name of the WardWinning party
11 – Kapra1 – KapraTRS
2 2 – A.S.Rao NagarCongress
3 3-CherlapallyBJP
4 4-Meerpet HB ColonyTRS
5 5-MallapurTRS
6 6-NacharamTRS
72 – Uppal7-Chiluka NagarTRS
8 8-HabsigudaTRS
9 9-RamanthapurBJP
10 10-UppalCongress
12 12-MansoorabadTRS
13 13-HayathnagarBJP
14 14-B.N Reddy NagarTRS
154-L.B. Nagar15-VanasthalipuramBJP
16 16-HastinapuramBJP
17 17-ChampapetBJP
18 18-LingojigudaBJP
195-Saroor Nagar19-SaroornagarTRS
20 20-R.K PuramTRS
21 21-KothapetTRS
22 22-ChaitanyapuriTRS
23 23-GaddiannaramCong
25 25-MoosarambaghTRS
26 26-Old MalakpetTRS
27 27-AkberbaghBJP
28 28-AzampuraMIM
29 29-ChawaniMIM
30 30-DabeerpuraMIM
317-Santosh Nagar31-Rein BazarMIM
32 34-TalabchanchalamMIM
33 35-GowlipuraBJP
34 37-KurmagudaTRS
35 38-IS SadanMIM
36 39-Santosh NagarMIM
38 40-Riyasath NagarMIM
39 41-KanchanbaghMIM
40 42-BarkasMIM
41 43-ChandrayanguttaMIM
42 44-UppugudaBJP
43 45-JangammetMIM
45 33-MoghalpuraMIM vsTRS
46 48-ShalibandaMIM
47 49-GhansiBazarBJP
48 52-PuranapulMIM
50 47-NawabsahebkuntaMIM
51 53-DoodbowliMIM
52 54-JahanumaMIM
53 55-RamnasturapuraMIM
54 56-Kishan BaghMIM
5511-Rajendranagar57-Suleman NagarMIM
56 58-Shastri PuramMIM
57 59-MailaradevipallyBJP
58 60-Rajendra NagarMIM
59 61-AttapurTRS
61 71-GuddimalkapurTRS
62 72-Asifnagar MIM vs TRS
63 73-Vijay Nagar ColonyTRS
64 74-Ahmed NagarMIM
65 75-Red HillsMIM
66 76-MallepallyMIM
6713-Karwan Circle62-ZiagudaBJP
68 65-KarwanMIM
69 66-Lunger HouseMIM
70 67-GolcondaMIM
71 68-TolichowkiMIM
72 69-Nanal NagarMIM
7314-Goshamahal Circle50-Begum BazarBJP
74 51-Gosha MahalBJP
75 63-MangalhatBJP
76 64-Dattatreya NagarMIM
77 77-JambaghMIM
78 78-GunfoundaryMIM
80 86-MusheerabadBJP
81 87-Ram NagarTRS
82 88-BholakpurMIM
83 89-Gandhi NagarTRS
84 90-KavadigudaTRS
86 80-KachigudaBJP
87 81-NallakuntaTRS
88 82-GolnakaBJP
89 83-AmberpetBJP
90 84-Bagh AmberpetBJP
92 97-SomajigudaTRS
93 98-AmeerpetBJP
94 100-Sanath NagarTRS
9518-Jubilee Hills92-Venkateshwara ColonyTRS
96 93-Banjara HillsBJP
97 94-ShaikpetTRS
98 95-Jubilee HillsTRS Vs Con
100 99-Vengal Rao NagarBJP
101 101-ErragaddaTRS
102 102-Rahmath NagarCong
103 103-BorabandaTRS
105 105-GachibowliTRS
106 106-SeriliggampallyTRS Vs BJP
10721-Chanda Nagar107-MadhapurTRS
108 108-MiyapurTRS
109 109-HafeezpetTRS
110 110-Chanda NagarTRS
11122-Ramachandra Puram & Patancheruvu Sub111-Bharathi NagarBJP
112 112-RC PuramTRS
113 113-PatancheruvuBJP
11423-Moosapet114-KPHB ColonyTRS
115 115-Balaji NagarTRS Vs BJP
116 116-AllapurTRS
117 117-MoosapetTRS
118 118-Fateh NagarTRS
11924-Kukatpally119-Old BowenpallyTRS
120 120-BalanagarTRS
121 121-KukatpallyTRS
122 122-Vivekananda NagarTRS
123 123-Hyder NagarTRS
124 124-Allwyn ColonyTRS
12525-Quthubullapur127-Rangareddy NGRTRS
126 130-Subhash NGRTRS
127 131-QuthubullapurTRS
128 132-JeedimetlaTRS
130 126-JagadgiriguttaTRS
131 128-ChintalTRS
132 129-SuraramTRS
134 134-AlwalBJP
135 135-Venkatapuramcong
137 137-Vinayaka NGRTRS
138 138-Moula-AliTRS
139 139-East-AnandbaghBJP
140 140-MalkajgiriBJP Vs TRS
141 141-Gowtham NGRTRS Vs BJP
143 143-TaranakaTRS
144 144-MettigudaTRS
145 145-SeethaphalmandiTRS
146 146-Boudha NGRTRS
148 148-RamgopalpetTRS
149 149-BegumpetTRS
150 150-MondamarketTRS
Primepost GHMC Exit Poll 2020


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