Wednesday, December 2, 2020

Covid 19: Peak Over, Will End by Feb 2021

  • Experts Panel Submits Report to Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan
  • Committee of IITH Professor says peak over in September
  • No community transmission in India, says minister

New Delhi: Union Government appointed panel on Covid came up with a report that shows the pandemic will be moderately controlled by Feb 2021, if public follow certain guidelines with precautions. Head of the panel Prof. Vidya Sagar from IIT, Hyderabad, opined that pandemic has touched its peak in mid September and now the graph is getting winded down. It is clear that for the past few days there has been a decline in number of cases.

Study conducted by a 10-member panel on “Progression of Covid-19 in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts” which came up with a Mathematical evidence with the help of IIT(Kanpur),IIT(Hyderabad) , Indian Institute of science, Ministry of defence, national Institute of Epidemiology, etc.

Aslo Read: Where India stands in Covid vaccine race? Oxford vaccine trials resume

The committee however felt that if no proper precautions are taken during upcoming festive season and winter period, there are chances of pandemic’s second wave in the country.

What Do Epidemiologists confirm?

 As per the studies by Epidemiologists on the pandemic, the peak was witnessed in India in mid September and studies should continue on transmissions and dynamics of virus.

With upcoming severe winter season ahead, old age people should take utmost care and still there are chances of vast proportion of the population getting infected, epidemiologists say. They did not favour any lockdown again in states or districts until any health care emergency arises.

Lockdown Impact during pandemic

Studies by this panel revealed that if there was no Nationwide Lockdown from month of March, country would have witnessed more than 25 lakh deaths by June. The committee felt that Lockdown was a major precautionary step by central govt which halted increase in cases and mortality rate in the country. Country handled the pandemic by coming up with different diagnostic methods and emergency equipment inventories, panel said.

Active cases which are around 8 lakhs now may be dropped to 40,000 and mortality rate to around 0.004 by Feb 2021 if all precautions and guidelines are carried out by states. Central Govt alerted public to be safe during festivals  with no huge gatherings. Govt. cited an example by comparing Kerala, which dealt pandemic in a planned way, is now facing 10,000 cases per day after ONAM festival celebrated with large gatherings in State.

3 Vaccines in race, first by year end

‘Covishield’ vaccine which is under phase 2, 3 trails is expected to complete process by Dec 2020 and hit markets by March 2021.Is it jointly produced by AstraZeneca and Pune-based Serum Institute. They plan to release 60 to 70 lakhs in market once the system is streamlined.

Bharat Biotech’s ‘Covaxin’ is also in race and expected to complete trials by Dec. Russia’s ‘Sputnik V’ got nod from DGCA of India for the clinical trials and its distribution along with Dr. Reddy laboratories, Hyderabad. Russia is coming up with a second vaccine ’Rospotrebnadzor’ which is not proven clinically so far. Johnson and Johnson halted the clinical trials after it found unexplainable side effects in a volunteer after administering clinical dose.

Wait for a few months

Indian government laid down route map to deliver the vaccine at a speedy pace once all formalities are cleared from DGCA and ICMR. Prime Minister Narendra Modi directed officials about the priorities in administering the vaccine at different levels in civic body. So it is just another few months for Indians to keep safe from the pandemic which disrupted life in the year 2020 by all means.

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