Wednesday, December 2, 2020

Bihar Opinion Poll: NDA leads all the way

  • Times Now-C Voter Survey Predicts NDA alliance to retain power
  • Voters unhappy with Nitish,  but TINA factor plays crucial role
  • BJP expected to win 85 seats, thus emerging as single largest party

New Delhi: Times Now – C voter released the findings of an opinion poll on Bihar which predicted that the BJP will emerge as single largest party with 80 seats and NDA alliance to retain power with more than 160 out of 243 assembly seat.

What Survey Predicts

Bihar voters (56% of those who participated in the survey) expressed their anguish and anti-incumbency on Nitish’s government for the first time in his 15 years rule. But the voters concluded in the survey that they don’t want to change the government.  In other words, TINA factor is saving Nitish Government from downfall. There is a huge vote share difference between NDA and UPA with former leading with 12% gap in comparison with the later.

Jolt for UPA

Survey predicted that UPA will end up with 76 seats, out of which 56 seats will be procured by RJD under the leadership of Tejashivi Yadav and the Congress would  end up with just 15 seats. This clearly shows that UPA did not gather enough strength  to defeat Nitish Kumar who is struggling with anti-incumbency indicating the  inability of congress and RJD to give challenge to both BJP and JD (U). In Mahagatbandhan, RJD will contest 144 seats with congress contesting  for 70.

Modi factor is still playing a crucial role in Bihar elections with 48.8% voters rating the central government good and 28.8% saying average. Late Ramvilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakthi Party is likely to end up with 5 seats, out of 143 seats it is contesting.

Important issue for voters of Bihar is Job creation rather than film star Sushanth Singh Rajput’s  death which turned out as a political issue between Bihar and Maharashtra governments. This survey was conducted from Oct 1st to 10th with samples of 13000 across 243 assembly constituencies.

Highlights in Elections 2020

Senior RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav is not seen in the campaign since he is at Ranchi prison in connection  with corruption cases. Senior Leader Ram Vilas Paswan, founder of LJP, passed away a few weeks back. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who fought elections with Congress in 2015 is now up against UPA by joining hands with BJP. Two youth leaders Tejasvi yadav and Chirag Paswan are in field with the support of the  cadre built by their fathers. Right now almost all pre poll surveys showed Nitish placed comfortably to retain power overcoming  anti-incumbency factor. Polling for Bihar will be held in three phases between Oct 28 to Nov 7th and results will be announced on Nov 10th.

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