Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Is YSRCP really on back foot?

  • Recent surveys by two Psephology groups predict the same
  • Vote share shifting to TDP
  • Still YCP on top and can retain power
  • Can opposition topple YCP in 2024 is a question mark

Amravati: Recent survey by a group of IIT qualified psephologists and another which is independent in the name of ‘Aatmasakshi’ conducted survey in Andhra Pradesh for a period of six months from March to September 2021. Samples collected for the survey is around 60k covering all thirteen districts.

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YS Jagan, still very popular

What Survey predicts:

Survey shows that ruling party, YCP is down with 3% when compared to 2019 elections and stands at 46.5% as of now. It also shows that nearly 46 MLAs are facing anti incumbency which may give jolt for Jagan in coming elections. The swing of this 3% is tilting towards TDP, which has to be checked by Jagan Mohan Reddy in coming days. It is true that there will be minimal anti incumbency after completing half way mark of rule for majority of Governments across India. This may go either way as elections approach, but at the same time, people of AP are not happy with MLAs who are not up to the mark as of now.

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Is Really TDP gaining?

Pulling vote share of YCP from 50% to 46.5% and gaining that vote share by TDP is not due to the party’s performance. There is no TINA factor until now for YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh, but people are of the opinion that they may opt for TDP if the same kind of rule continued by YCP in future. Chandrababu Naidu is ready to join hands with Jana Sena if Pawan is ready to repeat 2014 elections alliance. The surveys predicted that Jana Sena is with 4% vote share and Naidu strongly feels that TDP, Janasena will fetch majority and chances are more if two caste factors, Kamma and Kapu join hands to topple Reddy. BJP has no respectable vote bank in state and there are no chances of increasing it in coming days too.

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Welfare schemes can benefit for short span only

If the ruling party thinks that welfare schemes can help them to retain power even in next elections, it is a daydream. Schemes may help them for an extent but at the end of the day, State needs development in all sectors and sections. The liquor, sand, capital issues, all will be counted for 2024 elections. The major problem for Jagan is the performance of YCP MLAs. There is poor show by 46 MLAs as per survey and it may be true as they are not up to the mark in connecting with the people or implementing schemes on ground level in their constituencies. The financial status of state is also not good enough to carry on with the welfare schemes until next elections.

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What we observed at ground level

PrimePost sources tried to dig out the facts about the anti incumbency against YCP in State. It is true that the anti incumbency factor has started in the state but not so much to yield place to another party. This can be taken as a caution bell by the ruling party and it has time to overcome the factor too. If it ignore the alarm, there are chances of being wiped out by voters who did in 2019 elections by throwing TDP and making Jagan CM with 151 seats. There is clear cut growing anger among voters in East, West Godavari’s, Krishna, Guntur, Ananthpur and Kurnool districts. The internal squabbles in YCP are also adding to the anti incumbency factor.

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With exactly second half to go for next elections, will the TDP catch up on the issue or will YCP come up with course correction?

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