Monday, September 26, 2022

China‘s mistakes and Ukraine war

  • China seen as maintaining double standards
  • France, Germany to build armies
  • Europe suspects China  

Since 1962, China has been the biggest enemy of India. After China attacked India in 1962, China openly started allying with Pakistan. Recent events show that China has been funding Pakistan against India since 1962. China took full advantage of the old saying ‘’My enemy’s enemy is my friend.“ Pakistan was  only too ready to join  China.

PM Modi Raises Terror, Pak Economic Corridor With China's Xi Jinping: 10  Points
Narendra Modi and xi Jin Ping

Since 1962, every foreign policy move of China has been to control India and create problems for India. Though China and Russia were communist nations, as they had a long border with each other, they had territorial disputes. China and Russia even went to war over land. Russia was also worried that China was growing too fast. In 1972, US President Richard Nixon suddenly visited China and started a friendship after 27 years of enmity. USA wanted to befriend China to counter Russia and since 1972, China and Russia drifted apart.

Also read: Ukraine still fighting?

Xi and Putin met 38 times

But slowly due to changing relations between Russia and USA, China started getting close to Russia for its own selfish reasons. Ever since Xi Jin Ping became President of China in 2013, he met Russian President Vladimir Putin 38 times. Xi and Putin formed a close bond and decided to work together against their common enemy, the USA.

From 1990, China had decided only to focus on economics and become a rich nation. China is now a top economic power in the world. China did this miracle by carefully working with Europe and America. China also developed great economic relations with India. By 2010, when Xi became China President, China decided that it was time to come out with its strength in the open.

The famous Chinese leader after Mao Tse Tung was Deng Xiaoping, who wisely advised China – “Hide your strength and bide your time.“ He meant that China should not become aggressive and over-ambitious. But ever since Xi Jin ping  became China President  in 2013, China abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s advice to lie low and became aggressive. Xi started with occupying vast areas of South China Sea and created artificial islands to claim the sea. Xi has been aggressive with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India.  Xi Jing ping’s philosophy is that China is now a most powerful economy and must be treated with respect and all its demands must be met. Normally, China’s presidents get a two-term position of 10 years. But Xi Jin ping changed that law and Xi will serve as long as he wants. China is now projecting its military strength across the world with nuclear submarines, nuclear missiles and a huge army.

Also read: Options before KCR on national political journey

China’s contradictory interests

Joe Biden: The President | The White House
Joe Biden of the US

Ideally, according to noted Journal “Foreign Affairs,” issue of February, 2022, China wants to maintain strong ties with Russia, safeguard its huge trade with Ukraine, keep excellent economic relations with Europe, avoid angering the USA too much and then while inciting Russia to fight. China would want to avoid  spoiling relations with USA.“ Foreign Affairs journal says that this is not possible at all, as these objectives are severely contradictory of each other.

  1. China wants good economic relations with USA. But at the same time, China wants to displace the USA as a super power. China opposes the USA everywhere and supports enemies of USA. This is a contradictory ambition. USA is aware of China’s duplicity. But USA does not know how to curb China.
  2. China has great economic relations with Europe. Since no country in Europe has global ambitions, there is really no clash with Europe. The first time a clash between China and Europe happened is now when China encouraged Russia to war with Ukraine.  Germany and France have big economic relations with china. But now, entire Europe views China a ruthless nation, with no scruples.
  • China has a big economic relationship with Ukraine. But China encouraged Russia to fight Ukraine. China blames Europe and USA for sustaining NATO and angering Russia. But now Ukraine knows that China had a major hand in inciting Russia to fight Ukraine. Thousands of Ukrainians are dying thanks to China.
  • China was shocked at the severe economic sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. It is now stepping back from giving full support to Russia and has advised Russia to start talking to Ukraine. In fact, China now says that it was never aware that Russia was going to attack Ukraine. The world thinks that China was aware of Russian attack on Ukraine.
  • When USA showed China maps and intelligence that Russia was preparing to attack Ukraine, instead of China stopping Russia, it passed on US intelligence to Russia.  The USA is now aware that China was playing a double game.
  • Russia had expected more direct help from china. But Russia finds that China is now careful not to support Russia too strongly, as it was making too many enemies.USA and Europe have also made threats that if China helps Russia break the economic sanctions, they might include China too.
  • China tried to hide its support of Russian aggression. But, in February, 2022, when President Putin visited China, a joint statement was issued by Russia and China “that friendships between China and Russia had no limits.“ China  said that this friendship is more than an alliance. In this backdrop, Russia attacked Ukraine, thereby convincing Europe and USA that China goaded Russia to fight.
  • China wants to avoid war, but wants the gains of war without fighting. The biggest problem for China now is that the Ukraine war has disrupted world economies and this means less business for China. If there is war and high oil prices, then China being the world’s biggest importer of oil and coal will face inflation.  So China has started a fire far away. But the fire has now reached China.  China wants peace for itself and war for everyone else.
  • China tried to show great close support for Russia, so that Russia becomes distant from India. China knows that India and Russia enjoy a peculiar strong relationship over 75 years. It is Russia which advised China not to fight with India, as it will drive India towards the USA.

Setbacks to China after Ukraine war started

Reason for Russia-Ukraine War: Why did Russia attack Ukraine? Timeline of  events that led to Russia Ukraine Invasion
Putin, zelensky

a. China claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin never told them that he is actually going to start a war. After the war started, China is being blamed by Europe and USA for encouraging Putin to fight. China now has to reduce its support for Russia, which it is doing. The original plan of China was to isolate Russia and make it dependent on China has failed.

b. China expected that India would side with Europe and USA fully and therefore lose Russian support. But India carefully avoided taking sides and abstained in the United Nations. This has made Russia more grateful since it never expected such a support. Russian friendship with India became stronger.

c. China expected that USA and Europe would also act against India if it sides with Russia. But the entire world is aware that India is 60% dependent on Russia for arms and United Nations Support. The world knows that India faces a huge Chinese army of 2 lakh soldiers and China has grabbed land from India. India is actually in a state of war with China and Pakistan. Therefore, it was understood that India cannot afford to antagonize Russia. There have been no threats from USA or Europe to India.

d. Europe and USA are also aware that China is not following the international system of “Rules-Based world”. They are aware that China will become a big threat in the future.  President Joe Biden recently said ‘Russia is a threat in the short-term. But  China will be a long term threat.” The world is also aware that it is only India which can face China and therefore, neither Europe nor USA will negatively act against India.

e. China thought that after Russia invades Ukraine, the world will do nothing and forget it just as they did when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and occupied Crimea. But now China sees total unity of Europe and USA and other advanced countries against Russia. In fact, Germany and Japan, which have not developed armies since Second World War are now going to develop their armies. China is also aware that trust by Europe in China has gone down.

f. China hoped that after Russia invades Ukraine and grabs land, then it can grab Taiwan and attack India. China thought that world will keep quiet. But seeing the world’s reaction, it is a grim warning to China that if it attacks Taiwan, then the world will react very strongly. China is also now acutely aware that economic sanctions can bring it down. China is watching nervously what will happen to Russia, because of the it the severe economic “sanctions.“

China was ruled for thousands of years by an all-powerful Emperor. The last emperor in China was removed in 1912. But under the communist system, the same style as that of Chinese emperors continued. There is total secrecy and total power in the hands of the Chinese ruler. Therefore, big mistakes are covered up and the Chinese President does whatever he wants. Surrounded by sycophants, the Chinese President sometimes gets bad advice. Ever since Xi Jin ping became President, China seems to be driven by bad advice.  This is to India’s advantage since its main enemy is making big mistakes.

Let China continue to make mistakes

India has come out stronger due to the Ukraine war. The law of un-intended consequences“has worked in India’s favour. China’s arrogance and ambition had landed it in trouble. It will be very difficult for China to attack Taiwan, as it knows how the world will react.  

But the lesson for India is that if war breaks out, India must stand on its own feet. As Ukraine President Zelensky said – “Everyone in Europe and USA promised support. But that no one helped.”  India faces a long period of war with both China and Pakistan. But sometimes, mistakes by enemies solve big problems. Thank god China is making mistakes. As the great French emperor Napoleon said “Don’t interrupt your enemies when they are making mistakes”. Let China make more mistakes.

One week ago, China was loved by Russia, respected by USA and valued by Europe .China showed different faces to all three of them. But right now, all 3 of them view China as a mischievous country, led by unscrupulous leaders and a danger to world peace. India is coming out of the Ukraine war as a country, with morals and a country which looks for peace.

Also read: KCR – man in a hurry on a national journey

Dr. P. Pullarao
Dr. P. Pullarao
Dr. P. Pullarao, born in West Godavari, studied at Loyola College, Madras, PhD from JNU, Economic research at University of Chicago under Prof. Buckminster Fuller, famed futurologist, and Dr. Milton Friedman. Public Advocate, writer, TV Commentator and newspaper columnist based in New Delhi.

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