Why Florida is crucial for Trump’s Victory?

Venkata Kondubhatla

Winning the state of Florida adds about 19 percent chances of winning the presidential election for either candidate. The state has gained the ability of tipping the election results one-way or the other.

Florida has always been an important state during elections, but this season its significance has only increased.

According to Fivethirtyeight.com analyses, if Donald Trump fails to win Florida, he will have only five percent chance to emerge as president, while even if Hillary Clinton loses Florida, she will have about 33 percent of chances to win the election. Florida is more important to Trump than to Clinton.

But why is Florida so important for Trump? There are other battleground states that are important as well. Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have always played important roles in the elections. Even this season, winning Pennsylvania adds about 12 percent chances to win the election for Trump. It’s the next tipping-point state.

Clinton, if she wins Florida, she can afford to lose Pennsylvania and may be another battlefield state. But if Trump loses Florida, it’s a big blow to his election, as for one it is a state that has most aged White Americans, which means he might not win the other light-red states based on the trend. For another, he has to win all the rest of the swing states. He is leading in Ohio, but the other states may be a problem.

Florida has 29 electoral votes, which is the highest among these battleground states, and both the candidates are in a tight race in the state with just one-point lead for Clinton. No other single state can bring victory so close to both Clinton and Trump than Florida.

If White Americans with no college degree were to largely vote for Trump, then much of the Midwest would likely go to Trump, and on the other hand, majority of the Coast, the East and the West,would go to Clinton. Only a few remaining states are Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Maine. So, these states have become the attention-grabbers of every election, and even more this season.

Of these states, Florida has the diverse population. Known as a retirement state,it has a majority of aged Whites, a large Hispanic population and a sizable section of African-Americans. The state has been a great support for Trump. As per the average polls, the state is more Republican-inclined than the whole nation.

However, Trump hasn’t been doing much groundwork, which is essentially required at the time in the state. Clinton has been significantly active and has opened more than 50 voter-outreach centers, whereas Trump has only recently become active with about 10 centers and about seven on the way. The Republican Party has been anyhow trying to boost support without much of its leaders involvement.

Trump has also attracted criticism for taking time out of the election campaign just two weeks before the election for his hotel inauguration on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C.

Despite the disaster performances of Trump in the debates, he is trailing Clinton by only seven points nationwide, according to the new polls taken after the final debate. This shows that the race is still on and competitive, and Clinton is not showing any complacency on her part. She has been actively campaigning and taking no chances. 

Nevertheless, Trump acknowledged that Florida is very important to him and that it’s a must-win state. He has been trying to double down his efforts on winning Florida at the end of the election season, wasting no more time.

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