Trump’s Gain Makes The Presidential Race Tighter

Venkata Kondubhatla

Washington DC: With general elections fast approaching, a new set of polls are released with bevy of new data at hand that suggests that Clinton is ahead of Trump by about 3 percentage points, but Trump has gained some traction.

According to Fivethirtyeight.com, a news agency based in New york, the national polls average –- about 628 national polls surveyed by various polling firms — as of September 9 indicates that Clinton has about 42.5 percent of chances of winning the election, and Trump has about 38.4 percent of chances of winning, while Garry Johnson, who is a libertarian presidential candidate, is at some 8.7 percent.

Different polling firms have different methodologies they follow, and there is always an adjustment factor to be taken into account.

Venkata Kondubhatla

Venkata Kondubhatla

However, one thing appears clear. The polls after the Democratic National Convention that ended on July 28 had suggested a peak toward Clinton in terms of percentage points, and a decline for Trump. But the latest polls suggest that their trends are flipping.

To be precise, just before the Democratic convention, both the candidates came very close: Clinton at 40.6 percent and Trump at 39.7 percent. But soon after the convention, their graphs had diverged. At some point, the candidates differed by about 8 points in the national polls – Clinton at 44.4 percent, and Trump at 36.4 percent.

But the latest polls tell that the graphs are converging back again with Trump gaining and Clinton losing and overall tightening the race.

Why is Trump Gaining?

Dana Bash, CNN political reporter, said in the channel debate that Trump has become more disciplined, which is not usually ascertained to any regular politician, and Clinton cannot afford to be laid back and let Trump become the news any more and that she needs to actively begin to attack him.

Harry Enton, a senior political writer, has a different theory. He says both the candidates were flawed and the American people were not in love with either one. When people are reminded of a candidate’s flaws, they seem to oscillate back to the undecided or towards the other candidate, Enton said.

If we go by his theory, Trump’s bounce back makes sense. Clinton has been engulfed by the email scam and the allegations of fraud investments in Clinton Foundation. Her trust problem has only grown lately with FBI interviewing her regarding her emails while she was state secretary. The Foundation allegations were also at peak. There is a chance that a section of people may have embraced Donald Trump repulsed by the allegations.

But Trump is also not without controversies. His flip-flops on immigration and on whether he had supported Iraq war have become discussion topics in the newsrooms. On top of that, his recent praises of Vladimir Putin and his statement that Putin is much better than Obama have made him news.

Whatever the reason may have been, the upcoming presidential debates are critical to gain trust and to make a final appeal. Whoever handles the public scrutiny better will have an edge over the other in the elections.

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